{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "id": "3ce34fb1",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np \n",
    "import pandas as pd \n",
    "import scipy.stats as stats \n",
    "import scipy\n",
    "from datetime import datetime\n",
    "import statsmodels.formula.api as smf"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "id": "3f83184d",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from matplotlib import style\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt \n",
    "import matplotlib.dates as mdates"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "id": "1587a450",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from matplotlib.font_manager import FontProperties \n",
    "from pylab import mpl"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "id": "d3a37bd8",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "%matplotlib inline\n",
    "%config InlineBackend.figure_format = 'svg'\n",
    "from IPython.core.interactiveshell import InteractiveShell\n",
    "InteractiveShell.ast_node_interactivity = 'all'\n",
    "#pd.set_option('display.max_rows',None)\n",
    "pd.set_option('display.max_columns', None)\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "id": "c04f284e",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
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       "\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR</th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>rfmonth</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret3</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret6</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret12</th>\n",
       "      <th>Q</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.029998</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.036554</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006930</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.023068</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.029624</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.084127</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.305662</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.254049</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.010203</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.021860</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006930</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003273</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.014930</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.183573</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.384745</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.241492</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.099663</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.060425</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006930</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.106593</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.067355</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.252928</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.445049</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.288857</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.079652</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.031449</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006651</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.086303</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.038100</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.234776</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.394937</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.691749</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.074521</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005375</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006092</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.080613</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.000717</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.236294</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.181673</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.542701</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.031468</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.033685</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.032586</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.034803</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.151050</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.195992</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.227078</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.194874</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.225960</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.200147</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003409</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070220</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.004527</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.069102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000228</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.009724</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.045312</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008606</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.044194</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.002679</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.040799</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003797</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.041917</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>408 rows × 9 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "             MarketR  MarketR_e   rfmonth       ret     ret_e  marketret3  \\\n",
       "month                                                                       \n",
       "1991-01-31  0.029998   0.036554  0.006930  0.023068  0.029624   -0.084127   \n",
       "1991-02-28  0.010203   0.021860  0.006930  0.003273  0.014930   -0.183573   \n",
       "1991-03-31 -0.099663  -0.060425  0.006930 -0.106593 -0.067355   -0.252928   \n",
       "1991-04-30 -0.079652  -0.031449  0.006651 -0.086303 -0.038100   -0.234776   \n",
       "1991-05-31 -0.074521   0.005375  0.006092 -0.080613 -0.000717   -0.236294   \n",
       "...              ...        ...       ...       ...       ...         ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31 -0.031468  -0.033685  0.001118 -0.032586 -0.034803    0.151050   \n",
       "2024-09-30  0.195992   0.227078  0.001118  0.194874  0.225960    0.200147   \n",
       "2024-10-31 -0.003409   0.070220  0.001118 -0.004527  0.069102    0.000228   \n",
       "2024-11-30  0.009724   0.045312  0.001118  0.008606  0.044194         NaN   \n",
       "2024-12-31 -0.002679  -0.040799  0.001118 -0.003797 -0.041917         NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "            marketret6  marketret12        Q  \n",
       "month                                         \n",
       "1991-01-31   -0.305662     0.254049  1991 Q1  \n",
       "1991-02-28   -0.384745     0.241492  1991 Q1  \n",
       "1991-03-31   -0.445049     0.288857  1991 Q1  \n",
       "1991-04-30   -0.394937     0.691749  1991 Q2  \n",
       "1991-05-31    0.181673     1.542701  1991 Q2  \n",
       "...                ...          ...      ...  \n",
       "2024-08-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  \n",
       "2024-09-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  \n",
       "2024-10-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  \n",
       "2024-11-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  \n",
       "2024-12-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  \n",
       "\n",
       "[408 rows x 9 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 15,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from pandas.tseries.offsets import MonthEnd # 月末\n",
    "Market_ret = pd.read_csv('C://Users//10203//Desktop//编程工具//Marketret_mon_stock2024.csv')\n",
    "Market_ret['month'] = pd.to_datetime(Market_ret['month'], format='%b %Y') + MonthEnd(0)\n",
    "Market_ret.set_index('month', inplace=True)\n",
    "Market_ret.sort_index(inplace=True)\n",
    "Market_ret = Market_ret.drop(columns=['Unnamed: 0'])\n",
    "Market_ret"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "id": "f53d2e7e",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>cpi</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>5.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>5.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>5.8</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>6.7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>7.6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-06-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-07-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>463 rows × 1 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "            cpi\n",
       "month          \n",
       "1987-01-31  5.1\n",
       "1987-02-28  5.4\n",
       "1987-03-31  5.8\n",
       "1987-04-30  6.7\n",
       "1987-05-31  7.6\n",
       "...         ...\n",
       "2025-03-31 -0.1\n",
       "2025-04-30 -0.1\n",
       "2025-05-31 -0.1\n",
       "2025-06-30  0.1\n",
       "2025-07-31  0.0\n",
       "\n",
       "[463 rows x 1 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 16,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "inflation = pd.read_csv('C://Users//10203//Desktop//编程工具//inflation.csv')\n",
    "inflation['month'] = pd.to_datetime(inflation['month'],format='%Y/%m/%d')\n",
    "inflation.set_index('month',inplace=True)\n",
    "inflation"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "id": "98f6e53a",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR</th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>rfmonth</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret3</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret6</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret12</th>\n",
       "      <th>Q</th>\n",
       "      <th>cpi</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.029998</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.036554</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006930</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.023068</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.029624</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.084127</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.305662</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.254049</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.010203</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.021860</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006930</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003273</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.014930</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.183573</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.384745</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.241492</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.099663</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.060425</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006930</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.106593</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.067355</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.252928</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.445049</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.288857</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.079652</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.031449</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006651</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.086303</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.038100</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.234776</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.394937</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.691749</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.074521</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005375</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006092</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.080613</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.000717</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.236294</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.181673</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.542701</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.031468</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.033685</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.032586</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.034803</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.151050</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.195992</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.227078</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.194874</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.225960</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.200147</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003409</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070220</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.004527</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.069102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000228</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.009724</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.045312</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008606</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.044194</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.2</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.002679</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.040799</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003797</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.041917</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>408 rows × 10 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "             MarketR  MarketR_e   rfmonth       ret     ret_e  marketret3  \\\n",
       "month                                                                       \n",
       "1991-01-31  0.029998   0.036554  0.006930  0.023068  0.029624   -0.084127   \n",
       "1991-02-28  0.010203   0.021860  0.006930  0.003273  0.014930   -0.183573   \n",
       "1991-03-31 -0.099663  -0.060425  0.006930 -0.106593 -0.067355   -0.252928   \n",
       "1991-04-30 -0.079652  -0.031449  0.006651 -0.086303 -0.038100   -0.234776   \n",
       "1991-05-31 -0.074521   0.005375  0.006092 -0.080613 -0.000717   -0.236294   \n",
       "...              ...        ...       ...       ...       ...         ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31 -0.031468  -0.033685  0.001118 -0.032586 -0.034803    0.151050   \n",
       "2024-09-30  0.195992   0.227078  0.001118  0.194874  0.225960    0.200147   \n",
       "2024-10-31 -0.003409   0.070220  0.001118 -0.004527  0.069102    0.000228   \n",
       "2024-11-30  0.009724   0.045312  0.001118  0.008606  0.044194         NaN   \n",
       "2024-12-31 -0.002679  -0.040799  0.001118 -0.003797 -0.041917         NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "            marketret6  marketret12        Q  cpi  \n",
       "month                                              \n",
       "1991-01-31   -0.305662     0.254049  1991 Q1  2.2  \n",
       "1991-02-28   -0.384745     0.241492  1991 Q1  1.0  \n",
       "1991-03-31   -0.445049     0.288857  1991 Q1  1.6  \n",
       "1991-04-30   -0.394937     0.691749  1991 Q2  1.3  \n",
       "1991-05-31    0.181673     1.542701  1991 Q2  3.6  \n",
       "...                ...          ...      ...  ...  \n",
       "2024-08-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  0.6  \n",
       "2024-09-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  0.4  \n",
       "2024-10-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  0.3  \n",
       "2024-11-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  0.2  \n",
       "2024-12-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  0.1  \n",
       "\n",
       "[408 rows x 10 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 17,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data = pd.merge(Market_ret, inflation, left_index=True, right_index=True,how='left')\n",
    "reg_data"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 40,
   "id": "fbec2cf0",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# 导出数据\n",
    "reg_data.to_csv('C://Users//10203//Desktop//编程工具//reg_data.csv')\n",
    "# save as excel\n",
    "reg_data.to_excel('C://Users//10203//Desktop//编程工具//reg_data.xlsx')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "id": "91619864",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "reg_data = reg_data['2000':]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 32,
   "id": "dff232dc",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_15\">\n",
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       "<Figure size 1000x400 with 2 Axes>"
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   ],
   "source": [
    "# Plot the China's stock market return and inflation into one graph\n",
    "fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(10,4))\n",
    "# the linewidth and marker size are set to be very small\n",
    "ax1.plot(reg_data['ret'],color='red',marker='o',linewidth=0.8,\n",
    "         markersize=4,\n",
    "         linestyle='--',label='China Stock Market Return')\n",
    "ax1.set_ylabel('China Stock Market Return',color='red')\n",
    "#ax1.set_xlabel('Month')\n",
    "\n",
    "# 设置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "data_format = mdates.DateFormatter('%Y')\n",
    "ax1.xaxis.set_major_formatter(data_format)\n",
    "ax1.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator())\n",
    "\n",
    "# 转置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "plt.xticks(rotation = 80)\n",
    "\n",
    "ax2 = ax1.twinx()\n",
    "ax2.plot(reg_data['cpi'].shift(2),color='green',marker='o',linewidth=0.8,\n",
    "         markersize=4,\n",
    "         linestyle='-',label='China Inflation')\n",
    "\n",
    "ax2.set_ylabel('China Inflation',color='blue')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.title('China Stock Market Return and Inflation')\n",
    "\n",
    "# change the legend into one box\n",
    "lines, labels = ax1.get_legend_handles_labels()\n",
    "lines2, labels2 = ax2.get_legend_handles_labels()\n",
    "ax2.legend(lines + lines2, labels + labels2, loc='upper right')\n",
    "# save figure\n",
    "fig.savefig('C://Users//10203//Desktop//编程工具')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.show();\n",
    "\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 33,
   "id": "87427924",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>ret</th>\n",
       "      <th>cpi</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>count</th>\n",
       "      <td>300.00000</td>\n",
       "      <td>300.00000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>mean</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.00668</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.02053</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>std</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.07576</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.92313</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>min</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.26835</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.80000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25%</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.03981</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.80150</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>50%</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.00603</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.80000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>75%</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.04154</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.78695</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>max</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.29604</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.70000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
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      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "             ret        cpi\n",
       "count  300.00000  300.00000\n",
       "mean     0.00668    2.02053\n",
       "std      0.07576    1.92313\n",
       "min     -0.26835   -1.80000\n",
       "25%     -0.03981    0.80150\n",
       "50%      0.00603    1.80000\n",
       "75%      0.04154    2.78695\n",
       "max      0.29604    8.70000"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 33,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data[['ret','cpi']].describe().round(5)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 34,
   "id": "e26e14ff",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "np.float64(0.00767185990102763)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 34,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "np.float64(1.7083227513566661)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 34,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data['ret'].skew()\n",
    "reg_data['ret'].kurt()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "id": "11f382fe",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "原始序列的ADF检验结果:\n",
      "ADF Statistic: -4.8575\n",
      "p-value: 0.0000\n",
      "Critical Values:\n",
      "   1%: -3.4535\n",
      "   5%: -2.8717\n",
      "   10%: -2.5722\n",
      "结论: p-value小于0.05，拒绝原假设，序列是平稳的。\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller as ADF\n",
    "\n",
    "# 对月收益率数据进行ADF检验\n",
    "adf_result = ADF(reg_data['ret'])\n",
    "\n",
    "print('原始序列的ADF检验结果:')\n",
    "print(f'ADF Statistic: {adf_result[0]:.4f}')\n",
    "print(f'p-value: {adf_result[1]:.4f}')\n",
    "print('Critical Values:')\n",
    "for key, value in adf_result[4].items():\n",
    "    print(f'   {key}: {value:.4f}')\n",
    "\n",
    "if adf_result[1] <= 0.05:\n",
    "    print('结论: p-value小于0.05，拒绝原假设，序列是平稳的。')\n",
    "else:\n",
    "    print('结论: p-value大于0.05，未能拒绝原假设，序列是非平稳的。')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "id": "c9bc506d",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "\n",
      "原始序列的ADF检验结果:\n",
      "ADF Statistic: -3.3288\n",
      "p-value: 0.0136\n",
      "Critical Values:\n",
      "   1%: -3.4535\n",
      "   5%: -2.8717\n",
      "   10%: -2.5722\n",
      "结论: p-value小于0.05，拒绝原假设，序列是平稳的。\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "adf_result = ADF(reg_data['2000':]['cpi'])\n",
    "print('\\n原始序列的ADF检验结果:')\n",
    "print(f'ADF Statistic: {adf_result[0]:.4f}')\n",
    "print(f'p-value: {adf_result[1]:.4f}')\n",
    "print('Critical Values:')\n",
    "for key, value in adf_result[4].items():\n",
    "    print(f'   {key}: {value:.4f}')\n",
    "\n",
    "if adf_result[1] <= 0.05:\n",
    "    print('结论: p-value小于0.05，拒绝原假设，序列是平稳的。')\n",
    "else:\n",
    "    print('结论: p-value大于0.05，未能拒绝原假设，序列是非平稳的。')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "id": "50ae9837",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:                    ret   R-squared:                       0.029\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.026\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     6.079\n",
      "Date:                Mon, 13 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):             0.0142\n",
      "Time:                        20:19:37   Log-Likelihood:                 353.13\n",
      "No. Observations:                 298   AIC:                            -702.3\n",
      "Df Residuals:                     296   BIC:                            -694.9\n",
      "Df Model:                           1                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.0193      0.007      2.673      0.008       0.005       0.034\n",
      "lcpi          -0.6663      0.270     -2.466      0.014      -1.196      -0.137\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                       14.995   Durbin-Watson:                   1.779\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.001   Jarque-Bera (JB):               36.366\n",
      "Skew:                           0.111   Prob(JB):                     1.27e-08\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       4.697   Cond. No.                         52.1\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 6 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\10203\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\ipykernel_26272\\1890851257.py:2: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
      "  reg_data['lcpi'] = reg_data['cpi'].shift(2)/100\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Regression of return on inflation\n",
    "reg_data['lcpi'] = reg_data['cpi'].shift(2)/100\n",
    "model_cpi = smf.ols('ret ~ lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "print(model_cpi.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 44,
   "id": "1d87ea0f",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 1500x600 with 1 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "data = reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12'].copy()\n",
    "data['fitted_return'] =  model_cpi.fittedvalues\n",
    "\n",
    "fig = plt.figure(figsize=(15, 6))\n",
    "plt.plot('ret',\n",
    "         '-r',\n",
    "         label='ret',\n",
    "         linewidth=1,\n",
    "         data=data)\n",
    "plt.plot('fitted_return',\n",
    "         '-b',\n",
    "         label='Fitted Return',\n",
    "         linewidth=1,\n",
    "         data=data)\n",
    "plt.title(\"China's Stock Market\")\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Month')  # 画图的x轴名称\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Return')  # 画图的y轴名称\n",
    "\n",
    "# 设置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "data_format = mdates.DateFormatter('%Y')\n",
    "ax1.xaxis.set_major_formatter(data_format)\n",
    "ax1.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator())\n",
    "\n",
    "# 转置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "plt.xticks(rotation = 90)\n",
    "plt.legend()\n",
    "fig.savefig('C://Users//10203//Desktop//编程工具')  # 更改输出图片格式 jpg\n",
    "plt.show();"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 45,
   "id": "8dcc7a7f",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>ret</th>\n",
       "      <th>cpi</th>\n",
       "      <th>lag_cpi</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
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       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2000-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.368451</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.000000e-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2000-06-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.059961</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.000000e-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.000000e-01</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2000-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.014135</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.000000e-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.000000e-01</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2000-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.071593</td>\n",
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       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2001-03-31</th>\n",
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       "      <td>2.000000e+00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.800000e+00</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2023-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.047820</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.000000e+00</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2.000000e-01</td>\n",
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       "      <td>-8.326673e-17</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.000000e+00</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
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       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
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       "<p>100 rows × 3 columns</p>\n",
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      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                 ret           cpi       lag_cpi\n",
       "month                                           \n",
       "2000-03-31  0.368451  3.000000e-01           NaN\n",
       "2000-06-30  0.059961  3.000000e-01  3.000000e-01\n",
       "2000-09-30 -0.014135  8.000000e-01  3.000000e-01\n",
       "2000-12-31  0.071593  2.800000e+00  8.000000e-01\n",
       "2001-03-31 -0.004098  2.000000e+00  2.800000e+00\n",
       "...              ...           ...           ...\n",
       "2023-12-31 -0.047820 -1.000000e+00 -2.000000e-01\n",
       "2024-03-31  0.006789 -8.326673e-17 -1.000000e+00\n",
       "2024-06-30 -0.034157  8.000000e-01 -8.326673e-17\n",
       "2024-09-30  0.155216  1.500000e+00  8.000000e-01\n",
       "2024-12-31  0.000228  6.000000e-01  1.500000e+00\n",
       "\n",
       "[100 rows x 3 columns]"
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     },
     "execution_count": 45,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Q_reg_data = reg_data['1995-01':'2024-12'].resample('QE').apply({\n",
    "    'ret':\n",
    "    lambda x: (1 + x).prod() - 1,\n",
    "    'cpi':\n",
    "    lambda x: sum(x)\n",
    "})\n",
    "Q_reg_data['lag_cpi'] = Q_reg_data['cpi'].shift(1)\n",
    "Q_reg_data"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 46,
   "id": "b0f17e8d",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "['Solarize_Light2',\n",
       " '_classic_test_patch',\n",
       " '_mpl-gallery',\n",
       " '_mpl-gallery-nogrid',\n",
       " 'bmh',\n",
       " 'classic',\n",
       " 'dark_background',\n",
       " 'fast',\n",
       " 'fivethirtyeight',\n",
       " 'ggplot',\n",
       " 'grayscale',\n",
       " 'petroff10',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-bright',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-colorblind',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-dark',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-dark-palette',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-darkgrid',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-deep',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-muted',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-notebook',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-paper',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-pastel',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-poster',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-talk',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-ticks',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-white',\n",
       " 'seaborn-v0_8-whitegrid',\n",
       " 'tableau-colorblind10']"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 46,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "plt.style.available"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 53,
   "id": "01766a98",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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    "# Change the figure style\n",
    "plt.style.use('classic')\n",
    "fig = plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4))\n",
    "ax1 = fig.add_subplot(1, 1, 1)  #(x, x, x)这里前两个表示几*几的网格，最后一个表示第几子图\n",
    "\n",
    "ax1.plot(Q_reg_data['ret'],\n",
    "         color='blue',\n",
    "         marker='.',\n",
    "         linestyle='-',\n",
    "         linewidth=2,\n",
    "         markersize=7,\n",
    "         alpha=0.4,\n",
    "         label='Market Return')\n",
    "ax1.set_xlabel('Q')  # 设置横坐标标签\n",
    "ax1.set_ylabel('return')  # 设置左边纵坐标标签\n",
    "#ax1.legend(loc=2)  # 设置图例在左上方\n",
    "ax1.set_title(\"CPI and China's stock market excess return: Quarterly 1995-2024\")  # 给整张图命名\n",
    "\n",
    "# 设置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "data_format = mdates.DateFormatter('%Y')\n",
    "ax1.xaxis.set_major_formatter(data_format)\n",
    "ax1.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator())\n",
    "plt.xticks(rotation = 86) # 转置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "\n",
    "ax2 = ax1.twinx()  #twinx()函数表示共享x轴\n",
    "ax2.plot(Q_reg_data['lag_cpi'],\n",
    "         color='red',\n",
    "         marker='o',\n",
    "         linestyle='-',\n",
    "         linewidth=1,\n",
    "         markersize=2,\n",
    "         alpha=0.7,\n",
    "         label='CPI')\n",
    "ax2.set_ylabel('CPI')  # 设置右边纵坐标标签\n",
    "#ax2.legend(loc=1)  # 设置图例在右上方\n",
    "\n",
    "# change the legend into one box\n",
    "lines, labels = ax1.get_legend_handles_labels()\n",
    "lines2, labels2 = ax2.get_legend_handles_labels()\n",
    "ax2.legend(lines + lines2, labels + labels2, loc='upper right')\n",
    "\n",
    "fig.savefig('Qcpi.pdf', bbox_inches='tight')\n",
    "plt.show();"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 54,
   "id": "f3ab729f",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:                    ret   R-squared:                       0.053\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.043\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     4.408\n",
      "Date:                Mon, 13 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):             0.0384\n",
      "Time:                        20:25:38   Log-Likelihood:                 50.322\n",
      "No. Observations:                  99   AIC:                            -96.64\n",
      "Df Residuals:                      97   BIC:                            -91.45\n",
      "Df Model:                           1                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.0564      0.023      2.420      0.016       0.011       0.102\n",
      "lcpi          -0.0061      0.003     -2.099      0.036      -0.012      -0.000\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                       17.896   Durbin-Watson:                   1.578\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):               22.547\n",
      "Skew:                           0.927   Prob(JB):                     1.27e-05\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       4.424   Cond. No.                         12.4\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 2 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Q_reg_data['lcpi'] = Q_reg_data['cpi'].shift(1)\n",
    "model_qcpi = smf.ols('ret ~ lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=Q_reg_data['2000':'2024']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "print(model_qcpi.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 56,
   "id": "dfb0a022",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "data = Q_reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12'].copy()\n",
    "data['fitted_return'] =  model_cpi.fittedvalues\n",
    "\n",
    "fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))\n",
    "plt.plot('ret',\n",
    "         '-r',\n",
    "         label='ret',\n",
    "         linewidth=1,\n",
    "         data=data)\n",
    "plt.plot('fitted_return',\n",
    "         '-b',\n",
    "         label='Fitted Return',\n",
    "         linewidth=1,\n",
    "         data=data)\n",
    "plt.title(\"China's Stock Market\")\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Quarter')  # 画图的x轴名称\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Return')  # 画图的y轴名称\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.show();"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 57,
   "id": "60ee4c65",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\10203\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\ipykernel_26272\\690850194.py:1: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
      "  reg_data['next_ret'] = reg_data['ret'].shift(-1) + 1\n",
      "C:\\Users\\10203\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\ipykernel_26272\\690850194.py:2: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
      "  reg_data['next_ret2'] = reg_data['ret'].shift(-2) + 1\n",
      "C:\\Users\\10203\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\ipykernel_26272\\690850194.py:3: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
      "  reg_data['next_ret3'] = reg_data['ret'].shift(-3) + 1\n",
      "C:\\Users\\10203\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\ipykernel_26272\\690850194.py:4: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
      "  reg_data['future_3month_return'] = reg_data['next_ret'] * reg_data['next_ret2'] * reg_data['next_ret3'] - 1\n"
     ]
    },
    {
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       "      <th>MarketR</th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR_e</th>\n",
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       "      <th>ret_e</th>\n",
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       "      <th>2000-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.160838</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.140568</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001856</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.158982</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.138712</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.369753</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.454586</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2000 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.120168</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.054070</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.011158</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.193910</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2000-02-29</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.122024</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.120168</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.126491</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.194615</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.306103</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.312229</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2000-03-31</th>\n",
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       "      <td>0.104864</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001856</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.054070</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.103008</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.093710</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.157335</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.096405</td>\n",
       "      <td>2000 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.002</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.011158</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.025835</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.021865</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.059961</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2000-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.013014</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.015806</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001856</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.011158</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.013950</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.060182</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.045402</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.117584</td>\n",
       "      <td>2000 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.025835</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.021865</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.041389</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.091652</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2000-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.027691</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.039638</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001856</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.025835</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.037782</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.091987</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.057092</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.096799</td>\n",
       "      <td>2000 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.002</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.021865</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.041389</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.993453</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.057192</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.995473</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.199701</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
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       "      <td>0.005</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
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       "      <td>0.070220</td>\n",
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       "      <td>-0.004527</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.000228</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.008606</td>\n",
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       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.009724</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.044194</td>\n",
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       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
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       "             MarketR  MarketR_e   rfmonth       ret     ret_e  marketret3  \\\n",
       "month                                                                       \n",
       "2000-01-31  0.160838   0.140568  0.001856  0.158982  0.138712    0.369753   \n",
       "2000-02-29  0.122024   0.128347  0.001856  0.120168  0.126491    0.194615   \n",
       "2000-03-31  0.055926   0.104864  0.001856  0.054070  0.103008    0.093710   \n",
       "2000-04-30  0.013014   0.015806  0.001856  0.011158  0.013950    0.060182   \n",
       "2000-05-31  0.027691   0.039638  0.001856  0.025835  0.037782    0.091987   \n",
       "...              ...        ...       ...       ...       ...         ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31 -0.031468  -0.033685  0.001118 -0.032586 -0.034803    0.151050   \n",
       "2024-09-30  0.195992   0.227078  0.001118  0.194874  0.225960    0.200147   \n",
       "2024-10-31 -0.003409   0.070220  0.001118 -0.004527  0.069102    0.000228   \n",
       "2024-11-30  0.009724   0.045312  0.001118  0.008606  0.044194         NaN   \n",
       "2024-12-31 -0.002679  -0.040799  0.001118 -0.003797 -0.041917         NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "            marketret6  marketret12        Q  cpi   lcpi  next_ret  next_ret2  \\\n",
       "month                                                                           \n",
       "2000-01-31    0.454586     0.543186  2000 Q1 -0.2    NaN  1.120168   1.054070   \n",
       "2000-02-29    0.306103     0.312229  2000 Q1  0.7    NaN  1.054070   1.011158   \n",
       "2000-03-31    0.157335     0.096405  2000 Q1 -0.2 -0.002  1.011158   1.025835   \n",
       "2000-04-30    0.045402     0.117584  2000 Q2 -0.3  0.007  1.025835   1.021865   \n",
       "2000-05-31    0.057092     0.096799  2000 Q2  0.1 -0.002  1.021865   1.041389   \n",
       "...                ...          ...      ...  ...    ...       ...        ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  0.6  0.002  1.194874   0.995473   \n",
       "2024-09-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  0.4  0.005  0.995473   1.008606   \n",
       "2024-10-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  0.3  0.006  1.008606   0.996203   \n",
       "2024-11-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  0.2  0.004  0.996203        NaN   \n",
       "2024-12-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  0.1  0.003       NaN        NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "            next_ret3  future_3month_return  \n",
       "month                                        \n",
       "2000-01-31   1.011158              0.193910  \n",
       "2000-02-29   1.025835              0.093367  \n",
       "2000-03-31   1.021865              0.059961  \n",
       "2000-04-30   1.041389              0.091652  \n",
       "2000-05-31   0.993453              0.057192  \n",
       "...               ...                   ...  \n",
       "2024-08-31   1.008606              0.199701  \n",
       "2024-09-30   0.996203              0.000228  \n",
       "2024-10-31        NaN                   NaN  \n",
       "2024-11-30        NaN                   NaN  \n",
       "2024-12-31        NaN                   NaN  \n",
       "\n",
       "[300 rows x 15 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 57,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data['next_ret'] = reg_data['ret'].shift(-1) + 1\n",
    "reg_data['next_ret2'] = reg_data['ret'].shift(-2) + 1\n",
    "reg_data['next_ret3'] = reg_data['ret'].shift(-3) + 1\n",
    "reg_data['future_3month_return'] = reg_data['next_ret'] * reg_data['next_ret2'] * reg_data['next_ret3'] - 1\n",
    "reg_data"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 58,
   "id": "33dc52cd",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:             marketret3   R-squared:                       0.056\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.053\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     5.924\n",
      "Date:                Mon, 13 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):             0.0155\n",
      "Time:                        20:27:14   Log-Likelihood:                 143.93\n",
      "No. Observations:                 296   AIC:                            -283.9\n",
      "Df Residuals:                     294   BIC:                            -276.5\n",
      "Df Model:                           1                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.0580      0.022      2.617      0.009       0.015       0.101\n",
      "lcpi          -1.8839      0.774     -2.434      0.015      -3.401      -0.367\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                       62.151   Durbin-Watson:                   0.517\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):              122.390\n",
      "Skew:                           1.088   Prob(JB):                     2.65e-27\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       5.278   Cond. No.                         52.1\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 6 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "model_cpi_3month = smf.ols('marketret3 ~ lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "print(model_cpi_3month.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 59,
   "id": "391adb1e",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:             marketret6   R-squared:                       0.042\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.039\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     4.065\n",
      "Date:                Mon, 13 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):             0.0447\n",
      "Time:                        20:27:32   Log-Likelihood:                -26.479\n",
      "No. Observations:                 293   AIC:                             56.96\n",
      "Df Residuals:                     291   BIC:                             64.32\n",
      "Df Model:                           1                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.1039      0.046      2.256      0.024       0.014       0.194\n",
      "lcpi          -2.8821      1.429     -2.016      0.044      -5.684      -0.080\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                      150.688   Durbin-Watson:                   0.210\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):              741.113\n",
      "Skew:                           2.166   Prob(JB):                    1.17e-161\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       9.476   Cond. No.                         52.0\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 6 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "model_cpi_6month = smf.ols('marketret6 ~ lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "print(model_cpi_6month.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 60,
   "id": "b863cd14",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:            marketret12   R-squared:                       0.016\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.013\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     1.792\n",
      "Date:                Mon, 13 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):              0.182\n",
      "Time:                        20:27:41   Log-Likelihood:                -214.26\n",
      "No. Observations:                 287   AIC:                             432.5\n",
      "Df Residuals:                     285   BIC:                             439.8\n",
      "Df Model:                           1                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.1801      0.105      1.723      0.085      -0.025       0.385\n",
      "lcpi          -3.4358      2.566     -1.339      0.181      -8.466       1.594\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                      180.944   Durbin-Watson:                   0.087\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):             1145.146\n",
      "Skew:                           2.666   Prob(JB):                    2.16e-249\n",
      "Kurtosis:                      11.206   Cond. No.                         52.1\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 6 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "model_cpi_12month = smf.ols('marketret12 ~ lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(       \n",
    "                        cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})    \n",
    "print(model_cpi_12month.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 61,
   "id": "7dbd2da2",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                         Table - OLS Regressions: Forecast Stock Market Return\n",
      "=======================================================================================================\n",
      "                 Next Month's Return Next 3 Months' Return Next 6 Months' Return Next 12 Months' Return\n",
      "-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept        0.019***            0.058***              0.104**               0.180*                \n",
      "                 (0.007)             (0.022)               (0.046)               (0.105)               \n",
      "lcpi             -0.666**            -1.884**              -2.882**              -3.436                \n",
      "                 (0.270)             (0.774)               (1.429)               (2.566)               \n",
      "R-squared        0.029               0.056                 0.042                 0.016                 \n",
      "R-squared Adj.   0.026               0.053                 0.039                 0.013                 \n",
      "No. observations 298                 296                   293                   287                   \n",
      "=======================================================================================================\n",
      "Standard errors in parentheses.\n",
      "* p<.1, ** p<.05, ***p<.01\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from statsmodels.iolib.summary2 import summary_col\n",
    "\n",
    "info_dict = {'No. observations': lambda x: f\"{int(x.nobs):d}\"}\n",
    "\n",
    "results_table = summary_col(results=[model_cpi, model_cpi_3month, model_cpi_6month, model_cpi_12month],\n",
    "                            float_format='%0.3f', #数据显示的格式，默认四位小数\n",
    "                            stars=True, # 是否有*，True为有\n",
    "                            model_names=[\"Next Month's Return\", \"Next 3 Months' Return\", \"Next 6 Months' Return\", \"Next 12 Months' Return\"],\n",
    "                            info_dict=info_dict,\n",
    "                            regressor_order=['Intercept', 'lcpi'])\n",
    "\n",
    "results_table.add_title(\n",
    "    'Table - OLS Regressions: Forecast Stock Market Return')\n",
    "\n",
    "print(results_table)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 62,
   "id": "e1d5e7ca",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:                    cpi   R-squared:                       0.908\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.908\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     1501.\n",
      "Date:                Mon, 13 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):          3.67e-118\n",
      "Time:                        20:27:56   Log-Likelihood:                -262.10\n",
      "No. Observations:                 299   AIC:                             528.2\n",
      "Df Residuals:                     297   BIC:                             535.6\n",
      "Df Model:                           1                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.0974      0.047      2.055      0.040       0.005       0.190\n",
      "lcpi           0.9525      0.025     38.745      0.000       0.904       1.001\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                       16.638   Durbin-Watson:                   1.850\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):               39.283\n",
      "Skew:                          -0.191   Prob(JB):                     2.95e-09\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       4.734   Cond. No.                         4.35\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 6 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\10203\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\ipykernel_26272\\4002790972.py:1: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
      "  reg_data['lcpi'] = reg_data['cpi'].shift(1)\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data['lcpi'] = reg_data['cpi'].shift(1)\n",
    "model_cpiself = smf.ols('cpi~lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "print(model_cpiself.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 63,
   "id": "e7b10fa8",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:                    ret   R-squared:                       0.018\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.015\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     2.704\n",
      "Date:                Mon, 13 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):              0.101\n",
      "Time:                        20:28:33   Log-Likelihood:                 351.62\n",
      "No. Observations:                 300   AIC:                            -699.2\n",
      "Df Residuals:                     298   BIC:                            -691.8\n",
      "Df Model:                           1                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.0174      0.008      2.304      0.021       0.003       0.032\n",
      "cpi           -0.0053      0.003     -1.644      0.100      -0.012       0.001\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                       14.239   Durbin-Watson:                   1.736\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.001   Jarque-Bera (JB):               33.409\n",
      "Skew:                           0.102   Prob(JB):                     5.56e-08\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       4.622   Cond. No.                         4.34\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 6 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "model_cpiself = smf.ols('ret~cpi',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "print(model_cpiself.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "1d281501",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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